Kristin Forbes

NBER Working Paper No. 26496
Issued in November 2019

---- Acknowledgments ----

This paper was prepared for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity held in Washington, DC on Sept 6, 2019. Special thanks to Javier Cravino, Ayhan Kose, and Jim Stock for detailed comments and suggestions, to Kostas Theodoridis for joint work on the trend-cycle analysis used in this paper, to Gee Hee Hong, Zsóka Kóczán, Weicheng Lian and Malhar Nabar for kindly sharing their labor market data, and to Zhi Wang for sharing his data on global value chains. Additional thanks to Simon Gilchrist, Carlos Viana de Carvalho, and other participants at the 17th BIS Annual Research Conference held in Zurich on June 22, 2018 for comments on initial work on this topic. The author has received honoraria related to research on inflation dynamics from the the Brookings Institution and BIS. Author contact information: kjforbes@mit.edu The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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