NBER

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle J. Kost, Marco C. Sammon, Tasaneeya Viratyosin

Bibliographic Information

NBER Working Paper No. 26945
Issued in April 2020, Revised in June 2020
NBER Program(s):AP, EFG

This paper was revised on June 18, 2020

Available Formats

Abstract

No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. We also evaluate potential explanations for the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence we amass suggests that government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, operating with powerful effects in a service-oriented economy, are the main reasons the U.S. stock market reacted so much more forcefully to COVID-19 than to previous pandemics in 1918-19, 1957-58 and 1968.

National Bureau of Economic Research
1050 Massachusetts Ave.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-868-3900
info@nber.org

Twitter RSS

View Full Site: One timeAlways