Institutional Affiliation: Macro Research Barclays
|Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies|
with , , : w23267
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models, and assessed performance at horizons of up to 5 years. In this paper, we further expand the set of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity factors. The performance of these models is compared against the random walk benchmark. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, dire...
Published: Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual & Yi Zhang, 2018. "Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, . citation courtesy of
|Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?|
with , : w9393
Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage. The canonical papers in this literature are by Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1988), who examined monetary and portfolio balance models. Succeeding works by Mark (1995) and Chinn and Meese (1995) focused on similar models. In this paper we re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate' models. The performance of these models is compared against a benchmark model the Dornbusch-Frankel sticky price monetary model. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. Rather than estimatin...
Published: Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie D. Chinn and Antonio Garcia Pascual. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models Of The Nineties: Are Any Fit To Survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2005, v24(7,Nov), 1150-1175. citation courtesy of