Arata Ito

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
11th floor, Annex
1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo 100-8901

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Institutional Affiliation: Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2017Policy Uncertainty In Japan
with Elif C. Arbatli, Steven J. Davis, Naoko Miake: w23411
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards, building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters, and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian financial crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s deferral of a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetar...

Published: Elif Arbatli & Steven Davis & Arata Ito & Naoko Miake & Ikuo Saito, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty in Japan," IMF Working Papers, vol 17(128).

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