Chang Hong

Formerly, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Economic Research Service
Washington, D.C. 20250

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of California at Davis

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2020China’s Import Demand for Agricultural Products: The Impact of the Phase One Trade Agreement
with Robert C. Feenstra: w27383
In December 2019, the United States and China reached a Phase One trade agreement, under which China committed to purchase more imports from the United States: $12.5 billion more agricultural imports in 2020 and $19.5 billion more in 2021, as compared to 2017. We show that the most efficient way for China to increase its imports from the United States is to mimic the effect of an import subsidy. If China’s agricultural imports did not otherwise grow from their 2017 values, then the subsidies would need to be 42% and 59% to meet the 2020 and 2021 targets, respectively. These effective subsidies mean that China would divert agricultural imports away from other countries. We find that this trade diversion is especially strong for Australia and Canada, followed by Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, ...
January 2012Contractual Versus Non-Contractual Trade: The Role of Institutions in China
with Robert C. Feenstra, Hong Ma, Barbara J. Spencer: w17728
Recent research has demonstrated the importance of institutional quality at the country level for both the volume of trade and the ability to trade in differentiated goods that rely on contract enforcement. This paper takes advantage of cross-provincial variation in institutional quality in China, and export data that distinguishes between foreign and domestic exporters and processing versus ordinary trade, to show that institutional quality is a significant factor in determining Chinese provincial export patterns. Institutions matter more for processing trade, and more for foreign firms, just as we would expect from a greater reliance on contracts in these cases.

Published: Feenstra, Robert C. & Hong, Chang & Ma, Hong & Spencer, Barbara J., 2013. "Contractual versus non-contractual trade: The role of institutions in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 281-294. citation courtesy of

March 2010China's Exports and Employment
with Robert C. Feenstra
in China's Growing Role in World Trade, Robert C. Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, editors
October 2007China's Exports and Employment
with Robert C. Feenstra: w13552
Dooley et al (2003, 2004a,b,c) argue that China seeks to raise urban employment by 10-12 million persons per year, with about 30% of that coming from export growth. In fact, total employment increased by 7.5-8 million per year over 1997-2005. We estimate that export growth over 1997-2002 contributed at most 2.5 million jobs per year, with most of the employment gains coming from non-traded goods like construction. Exports grew much faster over the 2000-2005 period, which could in principal explain the entire increase in employment. However, the growth in domestic demand led to three-times more employment gains than did exports over 2000-2005, while productivity growth subtracted the same amount again from employment. We conclude that exports have become increasingly important in stimulat...

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