NBER

Cristiano Mantovani

Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Ramon Trias Fargas, 23-25
08005 Barcelona
Spain
Barcelona
Spain

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Pompeu Fabra

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2020Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network
with Pablo Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal, Wookun Kim, Edouard Schaal: w27441
We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models, and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu and NYC-Metro. Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns, and are not easily approximated by simple centrality-based rules. In NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting responses were too weak in central locations in Daegu and NYM, and too strong across Seoul.

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