Klodiana Istrefi

Monetary Policy Research Division
Banque de France
22 Rue du Colonel Driant
75001 Paris, France

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Banque de France

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2018Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers
with Michael D. Bordo: w24650
Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. What makes a member a hawk or a dove? What moulds those who change their tune? We highlight ideology by education and early life economic experiences of these members. The Hawk/Dove composition of the FOMC also matters for monetary policy as do the determinants that we isolate. They help explain deviations of the Federal Funds Rate from a forward–looking Taylor rule. This result has implications for the political e...

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