Institutional Affiliation: University of Delaware
|Floating Rate Money? The Stability Premium in Treasury Floating Rate Notes|
with : w25216
We identify a significant premium in the prices of Treasury floating rate notes (FRNs) relative to both Treasury bills and notes. This premium is directly related to the near-constant nature of FRN prices and differs from the liquidity and on-the-run premia in Treasury security prices previously documented in the literature. We find that the premium is related to measures reflecting investor demand for safe assets such as market volatility and flows into money market funds. Ironically, some of the variation in FRN prices may actually be due to changes in the premium for their price stability.
|Shadow Funding Costs: Measuring the Cost of Balance Sheet Constraints|
with : w24224
Recent theory suggests that balance sheet frictions and constraints faced by financial intermediaries can have major asset pricing implications. We propose a new measure of the impact of these constraints on intermediary funding costs that is based on the implied cost of renting intermediary balance sheet space. On average, balance sheet constraints add 81 basis points to intermediary funding costs, but the impact often exceeds 200 basis points during a crisis. We find that these balance sheet costs have real effects on intermediary investment decisions and asset holdings. Increases in balance sheet costs are associated with short-term increases in the use of derivatives, but longer-term declines in risk-taking by financial institutions. Balance sheet costs introduce a wedge between on- an...
with , : w19238
We study the nature of deflation risk by extracting the objective distribution of inflation from the market prices of inflation swaps and options. We find that the market expects inflation to average about 2.5 percent over the next 30 years. Despite this, the market places substantial probability weight on deflation scenarios in which prices decline by more than 10 to 20 percent over extended horizons. We find that the market prices the economic tail risk of de- flation very similarly to other types of tail risks such as catastrophic insurance losses. In contrast, inflation tail risk has only a relatively small premium. De- flation risk is also significantly linked to measures of financial tail risk such as swap spreads, corporate credit spreads, and the pricing of super senior tranches. T...
Published: Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2017. "Deflation Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, vol 30(8), pages 2719-2760.
|Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle|
with , : w16358
We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation-swapped TIPS issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional. Treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative to TIPS. Total TIPS-Treasury mispricing has exceeded $56 billion, representing nearly eight percent of the total amount of TIPS outstanding. TIPS-Treasury mispricing is strongly related to supply factors such as Treasury debt issuance and the availability of collateral in the financial markets, and is correlated with other types of fixed-income arbitrages, These results pose a major puzzle to classical asset pricing theory. In addition, they raise the issue of why the Treasury issues TIPS, since in so doing it both gives up a valuable fiscal hedging option and...