NBER

Michael J. Mina

Harvard Chan School of Public Health
Kresge Building
677 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA 02115
USA

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Harvard Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020Reopening Scenarios
with David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, James H. Stock: w27244
We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of questions concerning the economic reopening. We calibrate/estimate the model using contact survey data and data on weekly historical individual actions and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the weeks ending March 8 – May 16, 2020. Going forward, we model a decision-maker (governor) as following reopening guidelines like those proposed by the White House and the CDC. The sectoral accounting, combined with information on personal proximity and ability to work from home by sector, make it possible to construct a GDP-to-Risk index of which sectors provide the greatest increment in GDP per marginal increase in R0. Through simulations, we find that: a strong economic reopening is possi...

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