Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Board
|Optimal Policy Projections|
with : w11392
We outline a method to provide advice on optimal monetary policy while taking policymakers' judgment into account. The method constructs Optimal Policy Projections (OPPs) by extracting the judgment terms that allow a model, such as the Federal Reserve Board's FRB/US model, to reproduce a forecast, such as the Greenbook forecast. Given an intertemporal loss function that represents monetary policy objectives, OPPs are the projections - of target variables, instruments, and other variables of interest -that minimize that loss function for given judgment terms. The method is illustrated by revisiting the Greenbook forecasts of February 1997 and November 1999, in each case using the vintage of the FRB/US model that was in place at that time. These two particular forecasts were chosen, in part,...
Published: Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December. citation courtesy of