NBER

Sameer Nair-Desai

University of Southern California
3620 S Vermont Ave
Los Angeles, CA 90089

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: University of Southern California

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2020Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020
with Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Weining Xin, Joshua Aizenman: w27451
This case study compares the importance of prevailing market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining the evolution of Eurozone (EZ) sovereign spreads during the first half of 2020. Focusing on daily Eurozone CDS spreads, we adopt a multi-stage econometric approach. First, we estimate a multi-factor model for changes in EZ CDS spreads over the pre-COVID-19 period of January 2014 through June 2019. Then, we apply a synthetic control-type procedure to extrapolate model-implied changes in the CDS from July 2019 through June 2020. We find that the factor model does very well in tracing the realized sovereign spreads over the rest of 2019, but breaks down during the pandemic – diverging substantially in March 2020. In the second stage, focusing specifically o...
May 2020Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020
with Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Weining Xin, Joshua Aizenman: w27185
Key factors in modeling a pandemic and guiding policy-making include mortality rates associated with infections; the ability of government policies, medical systems, and society to adapt to the changing dynamics of a pandemic; and institutional and demographic characteristics affecting citizens’ perceptions and behavioral responses to stringent policies. This paper traces the cross-country associations between COVID-19 mortality, policy interventions aimed at limiting social contact, and their interactions with institutional and demographic characteristics. We document that, with a lag, more stringent pandemic policies were associated with lower mortality growth rates. The association between stricter pandemic policies and lower future mortality growth is more pronounced in countries with ...

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