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|An Agricultural Time Series-Cross Section Data Set|
with Thomas F. Cooley, M. Scott Matthews: w0197
The Agricultural Time Series-Cross Section (ATICS) dataset described in this Working Paper is based on the annual crop and livestock statistics collected by the United States Department of Agriculture. These statistics, scattered through a wide assortment of published and unpublished USDA bulletins and circulars, are extensive in their coverage of the agricultural sector, are highly disaggregated, and span a time period over one hundred years in length. Yet these rich sources have never been unified into a single compilation of data which is accessible, uniform, and machine readable. The ATICS dataset is an attempt to fill this gap.
|Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distress in American Agriculture, 1866-1914|
with Thomas F. Cooley: w0057
The agrarian unrest in the United States at the end of the nineteenth century is examined. This unrest is often viewed as stemming from the inability of farmers to adapt to changing conditions in world agriculture. This hypothesis is tested in the context of a distributed lag supply function. Varying parameter estimation methods are used to trace the history of the parameters in the supply function and to decompose observed prices into permanent and transitory components over time. The patterns of variation are tested for conformity with a model of rational price-expectation formation. The conclusion is that farmers behaved as economic theory would predict, but that neither theory nor practice gave them relief from the troubles which plagued them.
Published: Cooley, Thomas F. and DeCanio, Steven J. "Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distresss in American Agriculture, 1866-1914." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LIX, No. 1, (February 1977).